Since my previous annual report in February 2019, the UK economy has been primarily affected by three major forces: the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU and the rest of the world; the global trade and geopolitical conflict between the US and China, and, more recently, the global coronavirus pandemic.

Over the course of 2019, domestic and global uncertainty weighed on UK growth, which was below the average of prior years at only 1.1%. Unemployment, which had been falling in previous years, stopped falling in 2019. Inflationary pressure remained subdued, with pay growth no longer picking up, and core CPI inflation remaining below target-consistent rates.

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